* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 10/19/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 37 38 39 40 43 49 53 56 55 57 57 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 37 38 39 40 43 49 53 56 55 57 57 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 31 33 33 31 30 31 35 41 49 59 68 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 21 20 17 24 24 26 26 20 14 11 14 16 17 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 -1 -1 0 3 3 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 -2 1 5 SHEAR DIR 81 82 78 73 76 68 76 76 66 66 68 67 75 82 84 91 100 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.7 29.2 28.8 28.4 28.6 29.1 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 145 145 146 147 147 147 145 151 156 151 147 148 153 157 158 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.9 -52.4 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.2 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 84 84 84 83 82 79 75 75 72 68 71 78 82 85 85 87 86 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 11 11 10 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -8 -5 -3 2 1 4 9 10 12 18 38 42 48 54 63 68 200 MB DIV 48 81 124 108 131 126 94 106 97 100 65 78 90 109 83 78 83 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 717 732 778 829 880 941 933 886 840 742 623 491 366 268 181 92 -19 LAT (DEG N) 8.4 8.4 8.2 7.9 7.6 7.2 7.3 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.7 9.6 10.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.7 95.0 95.5 95.9 96.3 97.0 97.3 97.0 96.1 94.8 93.3 92.0 91.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 5 5 3 2 4 6 8 8 7 6 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 11 11 14 19 19 14 11 15 19 12 9 13 18 20 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 11. 21. 30. 37. 43. 49. 52. 54. 54. 52. 49. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -16. -26. -34. -37. -38. -37. -35. -30. -23. -17. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 9. 6. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -3. -0. -0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 18. 24. 28. 31. 30. 32. 32. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.4 94.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 10/19/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.76 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.14 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.90 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.68 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.2% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 21.7% 4.4% 2.2% 0.9% 1.8% 4.4% 14.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 12.8% 5.7% 0.8% 0.3% 5.6% 1.5% 4.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 10/19/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##