* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/19/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 60 62 64 66 75 78 84 85 88 90 87 100 102 85 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 60 62 64 66 75 78 84 85 88 90 87 100 102 85 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 57 59 61 64 69 73 76 79 80 79 77 77 63 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 10 9 6 14 13 15 11 21 14 18 25 28 37 31 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 6 9 10 5 1 0 3 5 4 5 11 16 6 11 8 SHEAR DIR 281 279 265 278 288 253 261 251 237 231 212 189 177 199 225 238 254 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.4 28.8 28.9 28.7 27.1 25.6 24.1 21.7 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 170 168 170 171 167 165 158 148 151 150 131 117 105 89 85 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -52.6 -53.7 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 6 4 4 4 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 60 56 58 57 57 58 61 62 61 57 54 48 47 46 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 18 17 17 16 20 21 25 26 29 33 34 44 47 37 850 MB ENV VOR 28 24 22 23 21 10 0 2 -7 4 13 62 115 174 150 52 -22 200 MB DIV 66 78 72 69 61 21 -5 29 72 32 66 87 125 74 136 93 117 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 3 3 2 6 0 7 6 10 -2 -37 -20 21 91 36 LAND (KM) 329 235 161 153 104 57 54 136 278 478 696 1015 1459 1477 1187 1301 1590 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.7 15.2 16.5 18.1 19.5 21.1 22.9 24.7 26.9 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.4 57.3 58.3 59.2 60.1 61.6 62.5 63.1 63.4 63.1 62.2 59.7 55.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 10 13 19 26 32 29 22 19 HEAT CONTENT 72 70 66 59 60 76 79 83 69 41 32 31 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 28. 26. 20. 17. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -4. 1. 1. 5. 6. 10. 15. 14. 29. 31. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 25. 28. 34. 35. 38. 40. 37. 50. 52. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.5 56.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/19/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.40 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 27.2% 12.7% 9.8% 7.7% 13.5% 17.5% 17.3% Logistic: 3.1% 6.8% 3.6% 1.8% 0.5% 2.4% 2.0% 1.3% Bayesian: 2.5% 1.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 1.6% 0.2% Consensus: 3.9% 11.7% 5.8% 3.9% 2.7% 5.6% 7.0% 6.3% DTOPS: 8.0% 41.0% 30.0% 12.0% 5.0% 12.0% 3.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/19/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/19/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 56 60 62 64 66 75 78 84 85 88 90 87 100 102 85 18HR AGO 50 49 52 56 58 60 62 71 74 80 81 84 86 83 96 98 81 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 52 54 56 65 68 74 75 78 80 77 90 92 75 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 44 46 55 58 64 65 68 70 67 80 82 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT