* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172023 10/19/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 106 96 88 69 55 35 24 19 16 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 112 106 96 88 69 55 32 33 28 25 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 111 103 93 83 68 53 42 38 35 32 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 19 20 23 21 23 23 31 33 35 36 50 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 12 11 10 7 6 2 0 10 11 7 5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 196 200 196 192 211 218 216 226 241 238 232 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.0 29.4 30.1 30.5 30.8 31.0 31.0 30.8 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 157 153 157 164 167 168 167 168 168 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -50.7 -50.2 -50.1 -50.6 -51.7 -52.4 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.5 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 54 51 50 50 47 41 35 32 26 22 21 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 29 27 26 26 21 18 7 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 66 55 47 42 32 20 19 37 61 38 67 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 -2 -35 -13 18 23 56 5 -2 -23 -1 -2 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 7 5 7 5 0 1 4 1 3 4 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 394 378 361 355 363 222 75 -2 20 65 97 37 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.7 21.0 22.3 23.1 23.6 23.9 24.1 24.4 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.3 108.5 108.8 109.1 109.5 109.8 109.7 109.3 109.0 108.6 108.1 107.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 5 4 2 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 51 43 34 23 25 30 30 34 34 34 33 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -8. -18. -28. -37. -45. -51. -55. -54. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -13. -16. -20. -18. -15. -12. -10. -9. -10. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -4. -8. -14. -30. -38. -40. -41. -39. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -19. -27. -46. -60. -80. -91. -96. -99. -100. -98. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.3 108.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172023 NORMA 10/19/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.05 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 653.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.7 49.8 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172023 NORMA 10/19/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##