* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172023 10/20/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 98 92 84 77 65 57 47 37 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 98 92 84 77 65 57 47 37 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 98 90 81 73 60 51 42 37 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 21 22 24 22 21 24 31 37 39 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 10 8 4 9 4 0 2 3 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 195 198 197 195 202 210 211 216 224 238 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.1 30.0 30.7 31.0 30.9 30.3 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 155 155 164 169 168 168 166 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.4 -49.9 -50.2 -50.7 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 6 7 5 7 5 8 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 51 51 49 46 41 37 37 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 27 25 23 21 18 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 52 46 47 45 32 21 45 67 68 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 -37 -11 15 9 25 17 9 26 -3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 6 6 7 4 0 2 -1 0 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 356 344 336 341 284 138 12 80 67 -15 -112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.8 23.1 24.0 24.3 24.7 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.3 108.6 108.9 109.2 109.5 109.4 108.9 108.4 107.7 106.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 4 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 45 35 24 20 31 32 34 34 28 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -5. -14. -24. -33. -39. -44. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -17. -15. -13. -10. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -9. -17. -25. -25. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -21. -28. -40. -48. -58. -68. -71. -73. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 17.9 108.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172023 NORMA 10/20/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 616.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.22 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.8 49.8 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172023 NORMA 10/20/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##