* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 10/20/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 33 35 37 43 48 52 54 53 51 48 49 50 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 33 35 37 43 48 52 54 53 51 48 49 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 28 29 30 33 36 41 44 47 51 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 17 19 20 23 24 23 20 19 16 17 23 23 19 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -4 -2 0 3 4 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 3 12 8 SHEAR DIR 75 74 71 63 65 69 77 71 70 70 73 81 95 106 100 92 102 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.2 29.0 29.6 29.0 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 145 144 145 145 143 144 153 160 153 148 148 151 152 155 158 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.8 -52.4 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 6 4 6 5 6 4 6 700-500 MB RH 83 85 83 81 81 76 76 73 71 75 79 82 83 83 86 84 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 12 11 11 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -4 -3 -5 -3 4 16 16 19 29 50 48 59 53 55 70 64 200 MB DIV 103 110 101 103 104 77 97 117 67 68 87 102 121 96 105 105 91 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 3 1 7 LAND (KM) 752 777 818 859 886 874 829 757 658 529 405 298 225 192 178 126 78 LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.8 8.2 8.6 9.0 9.6 10.4 11.2 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.3 95.7 96.1 96.4 96.8 96.6 95.8 94.7 93.3 92.1 91.1 90.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 4 3 2 3 5 7 8 7 6 3 2 1 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 12 13 14 13 10 9 15 23 14 10 13 18 19 18 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 10. 20. 29. 36. 42. 47. 50. 52. 52. 49. 46. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -15. -24. -30. -32. -33. -34. -34. -31. -25. -19. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 13. 12. 9. 6. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 28. 26. 23. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.2 95.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 10/20/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.75 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.23 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.4% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 2.7% 11.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.8% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 4.4% 0.9% 3.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 10/20/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##