* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/20/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 59 64 69 73 77 82 86 89 92 97 98 96 82 66 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 59 64 69 73 77 82 86 89 92 97 98 96 82 66 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 54 56 61 65 69 72 76 80 84 86 79 64 43 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 6 6 9 6 13 13 15 14 16 17 37 45 60 63 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 12 7 6 8 7 0 7 3 7 7 9 19 13 6 4 SHEAR DIR 265 279 274 264 275 288 255 277 245 230 237 205 213 212 209 211 242 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.0 30.0 29.5 29.3 28.6 28.9 28.9 27.4 26.1 24.9 25.0 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 167 169 167 170 171 169 169 160 156 144 151 153 133 118 107 107 93 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.1 -50.2 -51.1 -53.4 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.3 3.2 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 5 5 4 4 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 59 61 61 62 64 60 56 55 50 46 49 49 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 16 18 19 20 22 25 28 31 33 40 44 46 38 30 850 MB ENV VOR 26 35 32 32 26 17 19 -5 6 14 69 111 158 196 182 71 2 200 MB DIV 88 83 89 60 34 15 7 43 29 76 62 97 93 104 116 60 -36 700-850 TADV 2 8 9 5 5 8 0 8 6 9 6 3 8 26 -13 -31 -57 LAND (KM) 180 137 142 81 29 31 55 227 379 532 688 974 1409 1505 1127 921 919 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.2 15.8 17.1 18.7 20.5 22.1 23.4 24.4 26.4 29.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.9 58.7 59.5 60.3 61.2 62.2 62.7 63.2 63.6 63.1 61.6 59.4 56.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 9 8 9 9 7 7 11 17 21 21 19 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 69 63 58 61 69 78 82 76 55 33 33 32 16 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. 24. 19. 14. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 19. 26. 31. 33. 21. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 6. 3. -0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 32. 36. 39. 42. 47. 48. 46. 32. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.8 57.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/20/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.40 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 19.6% 11.8% 9.3% 7.3% 12.3% 14.2% 15.2% Logistic: 3.1% 7.2% 4.3% 3.2% 1.1% 3.0% 1.9% 0.8% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.1% 0.1% Consensus: 3.0% 9.2% 5.5% 4.2% 2.8% 5.2% 5.7% 5.4% DTOPS: 4.0% 16.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 8.0% 5.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/20/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/20/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 56 59 64 69 73 77 82 86 89 92 97 98 96 82 66 18HR AGO 50 49 52 55 60 65 69 73 78 82 85 88 93 94 92 78 62 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 54 59 63 67 72 76 79 82 87 88 86 72 56 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 45 50 54 58 63 67 70 73 78 79 77 63 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT