* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 10/20/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 33 35 41 48 53 58 57 58 55 54 53 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 33 35 41 48 53 58 57 58 55 54 53 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 29 31 34 39 44 50 54 57 62 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 18 19 21 24 23 16 13 14 16 20 18 19 17 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 2 0 2 1 0 1 -2 -2 -4 -1 1 7 8 4 SHEAR DIR 74 74 67 72 70 70 80 67 70 77 88 98 94 100 109 110 105 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.6 29.6 29.8 29.2 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.7 30.1 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 144 142 143 142 142 149 160 162 155 151 151 153 159 164 163 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 7 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 85 82 82 80 78 76 74 72 73 76 81 81 84 82 87 82 84 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 11 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -4 -5 0 0 7 20 21 23 37 52 46 53 51 69 85 94 200 MB DIV 115 99 97 99 89 64 90 71 70 69 97 107 136 74 77 82 86 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 8 5 LAND (KM) 718 739 778 796 796 765 718 677 589 469 346 254 196 140 87 74 143 LAT (DEG N) 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.8 9.2 9.4 9.6 10.2 11.0 11.7 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.1 95.5 96.0 96.4 96.8 97.1 96.7 95.7 94.5 93.3 92.3 91.5 91.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 3 2 4 6 7 6 6 4 3 3 4 5 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 9 9 9 9 8 12 24 28 18 14 15 17 20 24 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 10. 19. 28. 35. 41. 46. 48. 50. 51. 49. 47. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -14. -20. -24. -26. -26. -28. -27. -24. -19. -15. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. 9. 6. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 16. 23. 28. 33. 32. 33. 30. 29. 28. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.6 95.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 10/20/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.17 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.5% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 8.0% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 1.4% 9.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 7.9% 4.4% 0.2% 0.1% 4.1% 0.5% 3.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 10/20/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##