* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/20/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 75 78 82 84 83 82 84 83 84 85 88 84 75 70 V (KT) LAND 60 65 70 75 78 82 84 83 82 84 83 84 85 88 84 75 70 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 67 70 73 78 81 83 84 84 83 82 78 70 53 38 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 7 10 10 7 18 15 21 19 18 38 44 60 74 78 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 6 6 6 12 -1 5 2 3 9 5 10 9 0 -12 -3 SHEAR DIR 282 276 282 287 313 237 271 255 259 246 240 230 242 218 224 229 256 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.2 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.1 26.8 25.7 25.4 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 169 167 167 167 167 163 163 157 154 145 149 146 140 124 113 111 105 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -51.6 -50.0 -50.5 -51.8 -54.7 -57.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 3 3 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 62 63 61 61 61 62 63 64 62 56 47 31 25 24 22 15 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 18 18 19 21 21 23 27 29 33 36 42 41 36 34 850 MB ENV VOR 35 35 30 22 21 22 7 4 6 37 83 125 156 73 7 -63 -127 200 MB DIV 92 108 47 24 31 29 9 52 33 74 73 63 -5 22 0 -56 -69 700-850 TADV 7 10 7 5 9 4 8 4 3 1 0 -1 7 -18 -8 -57 -47 LAND (KM) 145 146 127 96 97 10 130 261 407 561 755 988 1281 1602 1457 1198 1000 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.8 16.4 17.8 19.4 20.8 22.2 23.4 24.8 26.5 28.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.4 59.1 59.8 60.4 61.0 61.9 62.6 63.1 63.0 62.2 60.9 59.3 57.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 10 12 14 15 16 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 64 57 56 63 71 75 77 69 56 37 34 28 35 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 17. 14. 9. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 2. 2. 3. 8. 12. 16. 20. 27. 24. 16. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 9. 4. -0. -4. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 18. 22. 24. 23. 22. 24. 23. 24. 25. 28. 24. 15. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.0 58.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/20/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 9.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.52 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 126.5 1.00 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.64 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.97 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 42.6% 27.0% 20.2% 12.6% 20.0% 14.5% 14.4% Logistic: 7.6% 13.7% 9.0% 7.2% 2.6% 6.4% 3.3% 1.2% Bayesian: 7.7% 2.2% 3.0% 0.7% 0.3% 3.2% 3.6% 0.2% Consensus: 9.1% 19.5% 13.0% 9.4% 5.2% 9.9% 7.2% 5.3% DTOPS: 11.0% 25.0% 8.0% 7.0% 3.0% 8.0% 5.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/20/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/20/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 6( 10) 8( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 1( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 65 70 75 78 82 84 83 82 84 83 84 85 88 84 75 70 18HR AGO 60 59 64 69 72 76 78 77 76 78 77 78 79 82 78 69 64 12HR AGO 60 57 56 61 64 68 70 69 68 70 69 70 71 74 70 61 56 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 53 57 59 58 57 59 58 59 60 63 59 50 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT