* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172023 10/20/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 90 83 77 72 62 53 36 31 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 90 83 77 72 62 53 36 32 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 89 83 76 69 59 49 40 35 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 22 22 20 20 23 31 32 36 41 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 9 8 4 -2 -1 9 14 8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 197 193 200 206 214 220 229 232 223 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.8 29.0 29.5 29.7 30.2 30.8 31.0 30.6 29.1 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 154 159 160 165 168 168 169 153 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -50.7 -50.8 -50.8 -50.3 -49.9 -50.1 -50.1 -51.1 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.7 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 5 4 7 5 8 5 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 47 46 41 38 38 32 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 26 25 23 20 15 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 48 46 38 38 27 37 69 73 55 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 24 32 33 47 44 7 37 -3 16 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 7 7 1 0 1 0 1 3 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 360 340 251 173 96 2 58 75 7 -90 -209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 20.0 20.7 21.4 22.1 23.1 23.8 23.9 24.5 25.2 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.3 109.7 109.8 109.8 109.6 109.0 108.1 107.8 107.2 106.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 19 21 28 28 28 32 34 32 18 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -13. -22. -29. -34. -38. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -9. -7. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -26. -29. -30. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -18. -23. -33. -42. -59. -64. -66. -68. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 19.2 108.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172023 NORMA 10/20/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.22 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 588.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.2 49.8 to 0.0 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172023 NORMA 10/20/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##