* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 10/20/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 28 31 36 43 47 50 50 52 51 51 50 53 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 28 31 36 43 47 50 50 52 51 51 50 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 24 25 26 29 32 36 40 47 55 64 72 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 18 20 20 20 15 13 17 12 11 14 13 16 19 25 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 3 4 3 2 -1 2 -2 0 -3 -5 -3 0 3 7 3 SHEAR DIR 72 70 78 75 77 80 72 70 72 74 95 103 108 108 110 111 105 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.3 28.9 29.8 30.0 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 142 141 142 140 144 151 161 163 160 158 157 158 155 153 154 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.9 -52.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 4 700-500 MB RH 81 81 79 78 77 75 74 70 74 76 80 84 84 82 82 83 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 10 9 7 7 7 7 7 8 11 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -10 -3 1 5 17 20 19 22 42 49 46 67 71 93 92 94 200 MB DIV 90 80 71 62 51 89 97 83 67 61 76 93 75 97 98 99 93 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 8 2 LAND (KM) 719 732 757 751 740 696 674 631 540 425 316 237 193 186 229 288 275 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.4 9.6 9.7 10.1 10.8 11.6 12.3 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.3 95.7 96.1 96.4 96.7 96.7 96.2 95.4 94.5 93.6 93.0 92.8 92.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 3 2 2 3 5 5 5 5 3 2 3 4 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 8 8 8 8 10 16 30 34 28 24 22 22 18 15 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 18. 26. 33. 39. 44. 46. 48. 49. 48. 47. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -11. -16. -19. -21. -20. -20. -19. -16. -13. -10. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 12. 11. 8. 5. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 18. 22. 25. 25. 27. 26. 26. 25. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.7 95.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 10/20/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.06 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.2% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.9% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 3.1% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 10/20/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##