* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172023 10/20/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 102 96 89 82 69 57 38 33 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 102 96 89 82 64 59 40 31 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 102 96 89 82 63 59 48 35 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 24 22 22 20 31 32 31 37 46 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 6 2 3 -2 6 14 9 9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 188 188 199 207 214 221 220 225 219 218 217 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.3 29.6 29.7 30.3 30.8 30.8 29.5 28.7 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 157 160 160 165 169 169 157 149 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -50.4 -50.1 -49.8 -50.0 -50.2 -51.2 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 5 6 5 7 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 49 47 45 44 40 39 34 29 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 27 25 23 21 17 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 48 37 35 29 22 46 79 63 69 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 19 30 44 39 -2 19 38 25 41 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 5 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 364 278 193 116 40 -8 73 30 -60 -156 -268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.5 21.2 21.9 22.6 23.5 23.9 24.4 24.8 25.4 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.5 109.7 109.9 109.9 109.9 109.6 108.9 108.0 107.2 106.5 105.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 4 4 5 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 20 26 28 26 29 33 33 22 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -7. -18. -28. -35. -42. -47. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -15. -12. -9. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -27. -30. -30. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -16. -23. -36. -48. -67. -72. -75. -77. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 19.7 109.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172023 NORMA 10/20/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 660.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.5 49.8 to 0.0 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172023 NORMA 10/20/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##