* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/21/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 70 71 73 76 81 86 89 90 91 90 88 82 70 61 56 V (KT) LAND 65 67 70 71 73 76 81 85 89 89 90 89 87 81 69 60 55 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 68 69 70 74 80 86 88 88 86 79 68 52 38 29 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 14 12 9 14 12 16 22 28 35 46 55 53 44 43 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 1 2 7 -2 0 1 0 3 6 12 13 10 6 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 273 273 283 285 259 271 275 275 250 254 238 247 226 214 213 247 263 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.5 28.8 28.4 27.5 26.8 26.4 25.7 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 167 169 171 167 165 165 161 157 152 144 149 144 131 122 118 113 104 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.3 -51.3 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -51.6 -50.6 -50.8 -52.0 -53.3 -54.5 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 63 65 68 68 65 57 50 40 39 43 50 55 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 14 13 14 16 19 22 25 28 32 35 37 37 31 26 23 850 MB ENV VOR 34 26 20 19 21 13 7 7 36 74 124 142 153 131 78 36 -7 200 MB DIV 76 39 21 9 12 36 62 53 70 40 95 49 41 38 38 19 18 700-850 TADV 12 12 10 9 3 2 3 6 2 5 1 33 36 24 11 5 2 LAND (KM) 120 86 58 57 17 50 158 293 412 575 794 1061 1381 1631 1574 1392 1188 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.2 15.9 16.6 17.3 18.7 20.0 21.3 22.4 23.7 25.2 27.1 29.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.7 60.3 60.9 61.4 61.9 62.8 63.6 63.6 63.6 62.7 61.0 59.0 56.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 9 12 14 13 10 11 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 56 58 67 74 75 79 74 62 49 31 34 25 21 4 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 11. 8. 2. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 5. 8. 12. 17. 21. 23. 21. 12. 4. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 16. 21. 24. 25. 26. 25. 23. 17. 5. -4. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.5 59.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/21/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.54 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 66.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.41 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.93 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.60 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 21.3% 12.6% 10.5% 8.5% 12.3% 14.1% 15.0% Logistic: 2.6% 7.5% 4.1% 2.6% 1.3% 3.2% 3.1% 1.6% Bayesian: 1.3% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 1.7% 0.1% Consensus: 3.6% 10.2% 5.7% 4.4% 3.3% 5.3% 6.3% 5.5% DTOPS: 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/21/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/21/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 4( 10) 5( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 67 70 71 73 76 81 85 89 89 90 89 87 81 69 60 55 18HR AGO 65 64 67 68 70 73 78 82 86 86 87 86 84 78 66 57 52 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 64 67 72 76 80 80 81 80 78 72 60 51 46 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 60 65 69 73 73 74 73 71 65 53 44 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT