* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172023 10/21/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 103 99 92 85 69 55 38 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 103 99 92 77 71 57 37 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 104 98 92 77 72 60 46 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 22 22 21 23 34 34 34 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 1 1 -2 4 6 12 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 191 204 212 220 212 229 230 228 217 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.7 30.5 30.9 30.6 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 157 157 158 159 168 169 169 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 -50.4 -50.0 -49.9 -49.9 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 6 7 5 8 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 49 47 45 43 43 40 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 26 24 22 20 16 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 32 30 28 22 24 68 74 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 34 31 29 39 -9 26 -2 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 3 0 0 2 0 -2 -6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 283 193 105 43 -11 22 97 0 -112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.2 22.0 22.6 23.1 23.7 24.1 24.4 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.0 110.2 110.1 110.0 109.4 108.6 107.6 106.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 4 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 26 25 23 24 31 33 32 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -2. -8. -19. -29. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -13. -17. -16. -12. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -11. -25. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -13. -20. -36. -50. -67. -76. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 20.4 109.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172023 NORMA 10/21/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 711.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.12 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.13 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172023 NORMA 10/21/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##