* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 10/21/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 27 30 36 43 46 46 45 47 46 47 44 41 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 27 30 36 43 46 46 45 47 46 47 44 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 22 23 26 30 34 38 43 50 57 67 71 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 19 16 15 6 7 12 11 11 17 16 22 28 25 25 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 7 5 1 2 7 3 -1 -6 -6 -3 1 2 4 3 8 SHEAR DIR 81 81 79 73 80 95 75 67 100 126 127 121 87 84 81 62 79 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.8 29.4 29.4 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 143 141 142 145 149 156 156 152 152 151 150 151 150 152 159 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -51.9 -52.8 -52.3 -53.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 5 7 5 6 5 6 5 7 5 6 4 6 700-500 MB RH 76 77 76 75 74 72 70 71 77 78 81 84 84 86 83 78 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 13 12 9 10 11 10 9 9 10 12 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR -4 2 8 14 16 14 14 18 30 31 52 78 87 94 89 93 86 200 MB DIV 32 51 48 70 86 93 54 21 60 31 70 85 83 117 133 119 164 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 -5 -5 -9 -4 LAND (KM) 692 685 662 640 618 585 565 502 432 364 294 248 263 286 326 342 287 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.6 11.2 11.8 12.6 13.2 13.5 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.8 96.2 96.4 96.6 96.6 96.3 96.0 95.4 95.1 95.1 95.3 95.8 96.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 9 9 12 16 23 22 16 14 14 14 14 14 16 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 8. 16. 24. 30. 35. 39. 41. 44. 45. 44. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -10. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 11. 11. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -2. 1. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 21. 21. 20. 22. 21. 22. 19. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.3 95.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 10/21/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 4.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 10/21/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##