* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/21/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 73 74 75 75 75 78 81 80 81 80 84 79 71 66 62 V (KT) LAND 70 72 73 74 75 75 75 78 81 80 81 80 84 79 71 66 62 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 72 73 73 74 76 79 78 75 73 72 66 55 44 38 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 9 8 13 15 23 16 20 21 37 38 45 34 29 28 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 7 10 3 -1 0 0 2 6 5 10 10 4 0 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 271 279 288 255 249 269 281 262 260 235 238 235 221 204 207 205 236 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.0 26.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 169 171 171 168 165 165 159 156 151 145 146 147 140 132 122 121 111 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.3 2.0 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 64 67 67 69 66 59 52 45 44 53 59 61 64 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 13 16 18 21 22 26 28 34 32 29 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 28 26 29 29 19 11 -1 7 41 65 110 134 141 145 133 96 41 200 MB DIV 38 19 24 29 37 49 30 61 50 55 87 62 51 69 72 73 73 700-850 TADV 11 13 16 4 6 14 4 8 0 0 8 22 40 39 19 17 16 LAND (KM) 70 49 65 3 56 94 188 339 416 522 680 881 1098 1247 1331 1472 1430 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.6 16.2 17.0 17.8 19.1 20.4 21.8 22.4 23.2 24.4 25.9 27.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.3 60.8 61.3 61.8 62.4 63.2 63.9 64.1 63.4 62.7 61.8 60.6 59.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 10 9 7 7 5 5 6 8 9 9 6 5 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 57 63 71 75 75 81 70 55 51 38 31 35 24 24 13 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. 4. -1. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -10. -13. -15. -15. -14. -12. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 6. 11. 13. 20. 17. 11. 6. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 8. 11. 10. 11. 10. 14. 9. 1. -4. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 14.9 60.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/21/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.52 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 68.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.42 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.85 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.56 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 21.5% 12.7% 10.1% 10.1% 12.1% 12.4% 12.4% Logistic: 3.2% 8.2% 4.5% 3.5% 2.1% 5.0% 2.3% 0.9% Bayesian: 1.8% 2.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 10.7% 6.0% 4.6% 4.1% 6.0% 5.2% 4.4% DTOPS: 9.0% 15.0% 12.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/21/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/21/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 5( 12) 5( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 72 73 74 75 75 75 78 81 80 81 80 84 79 71 66 62 18HR AGO 70 69 70 71 72 72 72 75 78 77 78 77 81 76 68 63 59 12HR AGO 70 67 66 67 68 68 68 71 74 73 74 73 77 72 64 59 55 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 61 61 61 64 67 66 67 66 70 65 57 52 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT