* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172023 10/21/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 91 86 78 64 49 37 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 96 91 76 70 63 49 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 95 90 75 68 65 53 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 23 21 22 32 35 34 37 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 3 0 -1 5 9 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 213 216 215 223 223 223 214 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.9 30.2 30.7 30.9 29.4 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 158 162 164 168 169 157 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.6 -50.2 -50.0 -49.9 -49.5 -49.7 -49.9 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 5 7 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 45 44 40 39 37 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 25 24 21 19 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 32 30 22 21 44 73 68 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 35 33 24 7 12 40 17 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 0 1 0 0 -1 1 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 170 98 26 -16 -5 68 52 -67 -179 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.6 24.0 24.3 24.8 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.1 110.1 109.9 109.7 109.1 108.2 107.1 106.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 4 4 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 26 23 25 28 32 34 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -7. -18. -27. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -13. -17. -14. -11. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -15. -26. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -22. -36. -51. -63. -68. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 21.4 110.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172023 NORMA 10/21/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.20 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 692.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.0 49.8 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172023 NORMA 10/21/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##