* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 10/21/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 27 30 37 42 47 50 49 49 44 41 40 38 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 24 27 30 37 42 47 50 49 49 44 41 40 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 23 22 22 23 26 30 33 39 45 52 55 56 57 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 21 20 19 12 4 10 8 8 6 11 17 27 35 19 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 5 2 1 5 6 2 -1 -5 -5 0 0 0 -1 5 2 SHEAR DIR 79 75 70 77 80 46 57 76 122 138 121 82 75 94 91 70 83 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.6 29.1 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 141 142 142 146 153 158 157 154 150 149 149 148 148 150 154 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 7 5 6 5 6 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 76 76 74 75 74 70 71 72 78 77 83 82 86 84 83 80 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 10 9 9 9 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 8 14 16 13 13 10 23 29 38 70 82 79 89 89 84 80 200 MB DIV 47 38 64 70 95 68 27 33 52 52 86 98 121 120 112 145 143 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -3 -9 0 0 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 674 640 618 607 595 585 569 505 440 384 340 323 351 369 377 318 218 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.6 11.0 11.6 12.3 12.8 12.9 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.2 96.5 96.7 96.7 96.6 96.2 95.7 95.2 95.0 95.0 95.2 95.4 95.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 2 1 2 1 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 9 10 13 20 27 25 19 15 14 14 14 13 13 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 24. 30. 35. 39. 41. 43. 44. 43. 41. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -10. -13. -11. -9. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -7. -7. -7. -8. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 5. 12. 17. 22. 25. 24. 24. 19. 16. 15. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.6 96.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 10/21/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 10.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 3.6% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 10/21/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##