* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/21/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 82 83 86 88 89 90 88 85 83 85 81 79 73 72 71 V (KT) LAND 75 78 82 83 86 88 88 90 88 84 83 84 80 78 73 71 70 V (KT) LGEM 75 77 79 80 82 86 88 89 86 81 76 71 61 51 43 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 8 11 13 15 14 16 19 32 38 42 40 37 32 31 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 8 5 0 2 5 2 8 6 12 11 15 6 -2 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 280 286 240 242 251 258 267 242 255 229 250 242 238 200 186 197 226 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.7 28.1 28.0 27.5 26.9 26.2 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 167 169 167 164 165 163 157 153 146 142 145 137 135 128 121 114 109 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -51.8 -51.1 -50.4 -49.9 -50.0 -50.9 -51.1 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.5 2.9 2.5 2.0 2.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 65 65 68 66 61 50 43 33 30 32 38 48 57 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 13 15 16 19 21 23 24 28 32 32 33 30 31 32 850 MB ENV VOR 30 34 26 14 5 6 -9 23 43 92 109 138 136 147 138 134 117 200 MB DIV 33 41 38 37 24 62 50 84 54 55 21 33 2 5 74 51 48 700-850 TADV 11 13 5 4 6 4 4 0 0 -4 16 19 39 36 14 8 0 LAND (KM) 71 80 3 36 46 154 273 406 487 581 727 869 1014 1152 1263 1282 1196 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.8 18.6 19.9 21.2 22.4 23.1 23.9 25.1 26.3 27.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.6 61.1 61.7 62.2 62.7 63.5 64.1 64.0 63.7 63.3 62.6 62.1 61.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 7 6 5 4 5 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 60 71 77 76 78 78 62 54 46 33 33 29 31 15 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. -0. -4. -9. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -11. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 3. 6. 7. 9. 14. 19. 18. 17. 13. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 8. 6. 3. -0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 13. 10. 8. 10. 6. 4. -2. -3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.6 60.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/21/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 72.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.45 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.49 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 301.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 29.0% 18.0% 15.6% 11.2% 12.8% 12.6% 11.7% Logistic: 4.0% 12.6% 7.6% 6.0% 3.4% 5.0% 1.8% 0.4% Bayesian: 1.6% 4.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 15.3% 8.9% 7.4% 4.9% 6.1% 4.9% 4.1% DTOPS: 7.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/21/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/21/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 10( 21) 11( 30) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 78 82 83 86 88 88 90 88 84 83 84 80 78 73 71 70 18HR AGO 75 74 78 79 82 84 84 86 84 80 79 80 76 74 69 67 66 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 75 77 77 79 77 73 72 73 69 67 62 60 59 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 68 70 70 72 70 66 65 66 62 60 55 53 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT