* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172023 10/21/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 82 75 67 60 49 34 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 82 67 68 61 50 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 83 68 62 63 51 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 21 20 29 34 32 35 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 0 0 2 7 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 214 210 220 228 226 223 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.8 30.2 30.6 30.0 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 156 160 164 169 163 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.1 -50.0 -49.8 -49.5 -49.7 -49.8 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 7 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 44 42 41 40 39 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 25 22 20 14 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 27 23 26 28 70 80 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 43 6 0 -14 30 10 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 72 11 -23 -2 39 89 -15 -142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.8 23.4 23.7 23.9 24.2 24.6 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.1 110.0 109.7 109.4 108.6 107.6 106.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 19 21 26 29 32 27 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -15. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -10. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -4. -6. -10. -23. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -23. -30. -41. -56. -62. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 22.3 110.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172023 NORMA 10/21/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 667.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.0 49.8 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172023 NORMA 10/21/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##