* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 10/21/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 25 28 33 41 48 51 54 51 53 52 50 46 46 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 25 28 33 41 48 51 54 51 53 52 50 46 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 23 25 28 31 36 42 48 54 56 54 50 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 21 15 8 8 13 5 7 10 20 26 30 24 22 23 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 1 0 0 4 1 0 -6 -8 -4 -1 4 5 8 5 3 SHEAR DIR 74 69 80 85 87 77 73 106 147 119 103 85 76 81 69 91 95 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.6 29.9 29.7 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.3 28.9 29.0 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 145 145 147 151 158 160 159 154 151 155 156 154 151 153 157 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -52.0 -52.5 -52.0 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -51.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 5 6 5 6 5 6 4 5 3 6 4 700-500 MB RH 76 74 75 73 71 69 72 76 77 80 83 86 85 81 79 76 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 13 14 15 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 8 14 14 15 15 11 18 29 27 52 70 73 83 84 81 86 83 200 MB DIV 44 53 66 85 75 55 21 53 56 67 82 106 135 123 99 100 85 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 -6 -4 -2 2 4 LAND (KM) 651 618 607 595 595 587 552 483 433 378 362 363 348 316 290 218 102 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.6 11.0 11.5 12.1 12.3 12.1 12.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.4 96.6 96.7 96.6 96.4 96.0 95.4 94.9 94.8 94.7 94.7 94.5 94.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 0 2 2 2 5 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 10 11 12 16 25 32 29 22 20 23 25 20 15 15 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 16. 24. 30. 35. 39. 41. 44. 46. 45. 43. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -8. -11. -15. -16. -14. -12. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -5. -1. 1. 1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 8. 16. 23. 26. 29. 27. 28. 27. 25. 21. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.8 96.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 10/21/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.75 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.09 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.7% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 4.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 3.9% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 4.0% 1.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 10/21/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##