* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/21/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 79 80 82 82 83 85 81 79 80 80 79 72 68 63 58 V (KT) LAND 75 77 79 80 82 82 83 85 81 79 80 80 79 72 68 63 58 V (KT) LGEM 75 77 77 78 79 81 83 83 78 74 70 63 52 41 33 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 13 17 15 19 10 23 26 43 39 48 38 34 36 35 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 3 -1 -1 3 3 6 6 6 16 13 10 2 -6 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 278 256 252 258 252 259 251 243 236 245 260 245 223 204 194 202 187 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.7 28.5 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 168 166 163 165 165 155 153 146 142 144 142 134 131 125 123 119 116 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -51.6 -50.4 -50.1 -50.0 -51.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.5 2.2 1.4 1.5 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 64 63 64 65 66 67 65 57 48 35 31 25 27 34 46 54 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 16 18 22 23 26 30 34 36 32 30 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 27 12 0 -5 -6 -5 2 35 63 99 130 130 141 105 92 84 109 200 MB DIV 42 36 34 21 41 41 54 70 68 75 0 13 -29 -16 47 55 38 700-850 TADV 12 0 6 8 13 4 10 1 1 6 20 10 20 13 21 13 11 LAND (KM) 79 24 66 97 158 271 387 489 603 698 794 933 1111 1199 1243 1209 1073 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.5 18.3 19.0 19.7 21.1 22.2 23.1 24.1 24.9 25.7 26.9 28.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.1 61.6 62.0 62.5 62.9 63.6 63.8 63.6 63.3 62.9 62.5 62.1 61.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 7 5 5 5 4 5 7 7 5 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 74 79 75 77 79 67 55 46 32 33 32 28 20 11 10 5 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -17. -16. -14. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 9. 12. 19. 23. 25. 18. 14. 9. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 10. 6. 4. 5. 5. 4. -3. -7. -12. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.6 61.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/21/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.55 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 76.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.47 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.46 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 314.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 22.9% 14.3% 11.3% 10.3% 11.6% 11.9% 9.8% Logistic: 3.1% 8.1% 4.5% 2.8% 1.4% 2.3% 1.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.2% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 11.0% 6.5% 4.8% 3.9% 4.7% 4.5% 3.3% DTOPS: 8.0% 30.0% 21.0% 12.0% 7.0% 24.0% 7.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/21/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/21/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 8( 19) 8( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 77 79 80 82 82 83 85 81 79 80 80 79 72 68 63 58 18HR AGO 75 74 76 77 79 79 80 82 78 76 77 77 76 69 65 60 55 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 74 74 75 77 73 71 72 72 71 64 60 55 50 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 67 67 68 70 66 64 65 65 64 57 53 48 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT