* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/22/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 77 78 79 78 79 77 75 71 67 68 67 61 59 60 58 V (KT) LAND 75 76 77 78 79 78 79 77 75 71 67 68 67 61 59 60 58 V (KT) LGEM 75 75 75 76 76 77 78 76 71 66 58 50 42 34 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 19 15 16 19 20 22 32 38 47 46 40 28 28 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 -1 1 3 2 3 11 8 13 12 9 10 7 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 244 247 254 250 247 254 234 249 239 249 244 241 216 202 195 202 238 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.0 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 165 163 161 154 148 142 141 145 136 132 130 128 122 123 121 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -51.7 -51.0 -50.4 -50.3 -50.3 -50.8 -50.8 -51.1 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.3 1.7 2.6 2.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 64 66 66 67 68 67 58 53 44 36 33 29 37 48 54 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 13 14 15 16 19 21 23 24 25 28 29 26 25 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR 13 4 -8 -10 0 -7 24 46 92 114 134 126 129 112 104 86 81 200 MB DIV 42 41 34 46 59 30 79 51 59 54 46 22 -3 20 29 12 14 700-850 TADV 2 1 4 6 4 5 1 1 -3 14 21 27 33 25 14 5 1 LAND (KM) 16 61 100 153 208 347 467 547 627 729 855 988 1117 1163 1162 1131 1045 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.3 19.0 19.7 20.3 21.8 22.9 23.6 24.3 25.2 26.3 27.5 28.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.6 62.0 62.4 62.8 63.2 63.6 63.6 63.4 63.2 63.0 62.7 62.6 62.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 4 5 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 79 75 76 79 77 60 48 38 31 34 29 26 20 15 6 10 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -7. -10. -14. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -19. -17. -15. -12. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 14. 14. 8. 6. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 2. -0. -4. -8. -7. -8. -14. -16. -15. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.5 61.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/22/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.50 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 77.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.48 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.43 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 19.1% 12.6% 10.4% 8.6% 11.0% 10.7% 7.0% Logistic: 4.1% 9.2% 5.0% 4.0% 2.5% 3.1% 1.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 10.1% 6.1% 5.0% 3.8% 4.8% 4.1% 2.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/22/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/22/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 6( 11) 7( 17) 6( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 1( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 76 77 78 79 78 79 77 75 71 67 68 67 61 59 60 58 18HR AGO 75 74 75 76 77 76 77 75 73 69 65 66 65 59 57 58 56 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 73 72 73 71 69 65 61 62 61 55 53 54 52 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 66 65 66 64 62 58 54 55 54 48 46 47 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT