* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 10/22/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 33 39 45 49 50 52 52 53 54 51 49 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 33 39 45 49 50 52 52 53 54 51 49 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 30 33 36 39 42 43 41 37 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 10 7 11 15 10 12 15 17 27 35 28 21 22 12 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 5 3 1 0 -4 -5 0 7 1 6 8 6 5 3 SHEAR DIR 70 71 77 64 78 75 94 96 117 120 90 69 83 55 85 57 86 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.7 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.3 28.7 28.8 29.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 143 143 145 148 155 158 156 156 158 158 155 149 151 161 154 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -51.6 -52.3 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 3 6 4 6 700-500 MB RH 73 71 69 70 71 73 77 79 83 84 85 87 83 80 76 73 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 9 12 14 16 15 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 9 10 12 8 10 20 14 22 56 74 76 84 74 76 75 68 69 200 MB DIV 87 87 66 54 47 30 35 46 93 117 123 121 138 103 121 78 55 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 4 4 -11 -10 -4 5 1 1 LAND (KM) 666 658 646 643 630 607 558 479 409 394 404 402 385 329 200 42 -102 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.8 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.7 11.3 11.8 11.8 11.6 11.7 12.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.2 97.4 97.3 97.1 96.9 96.3 95.7 95.2 94.8 94.6 94.5 94.6 94.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 2 1 0 2 3 5 7 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 9 9 10 13 20 26 25 27 31 29 21 13 13 21 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 24. 30. 35. 39. 42. 45. 46. 45. 44. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -20. -24. -22. -19. -14. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -5. -1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 25. 27. 27. 28. 29. 26. 24. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 97.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 10/22/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.26 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.2% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 9.1% 2.2% 1.0% 0.2% 1.1% 4.4% 16.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.3% 7.9% 4.5% 0.3% 0.1% 4.5% 5.7% 5.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 10/22/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##