* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/22/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 77 78 78 79 80 82 81 86 86 80 72 65 62 62 61 V (KT) LAND 75 75 77 78 78 79 80 82 81 86 86 80 72 65 62 62 61 V (KT) LGEM 75 75 76 75 75 75 77 77 76 75 69 54 39 30 27 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 15 17 20 17 21 20 34 41 48 35 33 20 27 20 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 5 3 1 1 5 9 8 14 25 17 7 5 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 241 251 255 259 265 251 247 235 239 245 240 213 199 180 216 225 234 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.2 27.3 27.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 161 157 153 147 144 141 143 144 137 132 125 126 127 120 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -51.8 -50.3 -49.8 -49.7 -50.5 -51.3 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 65 64 66 67 68 65 55 53 46 41 35 37 49 55 49 42 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 16 16 16 16 19 21 25 27 34 38 35 32 29 27 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 9 4 6 6 -7 7 33 79 113 157 174 167 141 102 79 63 37 200 MB DIV 34 55 87 91 45 33 64 81 87 65 28 -14 -6 37 23 27 -9 700-850 TADV 6 10 14 9 8 13 2 4 9 28 39 40 32 13 6 2 -3 LAND (KM) 40 72 135 186 234 376 465 503 578 669 768 890 1039 1085 997 939 930 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.8 19.5 20.2 20.8 22.1 22.9 23.2 23.7 24.5 25.5 26.7 28.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.1 62.5 62.9 63.3 63.8 63.8 63.7 63.4 62.6 62.4 62.7 63.2 63.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 5 3 3 4 4 6 7 6 7 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 76 77 80 77 67 56 48 44 34 30 33 29 18 7 10 12 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -11. -15. -19. -21. -20. -18. -15. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 14. 24. 30. 25. 19. 13. 9. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 11. 11. 5. -3. -10. -13. -13. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.0 62.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/22/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.43 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.47 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.42 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 16.2% 11.1% 9.3% 7.2% 10.0% 9.4% 6.7% Logistic: 2.6% 5.6% 2.4% 1.5% 0.9% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 7.6% 4.6% 3.7% 2.8% 4.0% 3.3% 2.3% DTOPS: 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/22/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/22/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 6( 11) 6( 16) 7( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 75 77 78 78 79 80 82 81 86 86 80 72 65 62 62 61 18HR AGO 75 74 76 77 77 78 79 81 80 85 85 79 71 64 61 61 60 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 72 73 74 76 75 80 80 74 66 59 56 56 55 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 66 67 69 68 73 73 67 59 52 49 49 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT