* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 10/22/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 47 55 59 67 68 70 68 66 63 59 59 62 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 47 37 30 28 27 27 29 27 24 21 20 23 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 42 34 29 27 27 27 27 31 31 30 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 2 4 6 4 4 4 2 8 7 20 20 27 25 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 4 3 7 0 0 -2 0 2 3 8 5 2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 220 232 169 168 187 135 130 80 8 65 127 107 129 111 102 104 98 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 30.1 30.6 30.7 30.3 30.6 28.8 29.2 29.7 30.5 30.2 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 158 158 159 169 169 170 171 172 149 156 165 171 170 168 166 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 6 6 7 6 7 5 6 5 6 4 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 77 77 77 82 81 83 78 82 80 80 76 77 76 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 10 11 12 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 35 33 34 29 27 40 56 85 85 108 133 128 131 99 96 68 200 MB DIV 65 62 65 48 41 56 56 37 57 73 101 113 123 140 110 86 62 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 4 3 4 3 1 0 1 5 5 15 15 6 6 0 LAND (KM) 229 213 171 130 97 39 -77 -167 -107 -49 -171 3 7 130 225 283 304 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.3 13.8 14.4 14.8 15.3 15.7 15.8 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.4 81.7 82.0 82.3 82.6 83.2 84.2 85.3 86.8 88.8 91.2 93.7 96.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 4 5 6 6 9 11 13 13 13 9 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 27 28 30 45 36 7 54 57 12 19 22 40 40 38 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 14. 22. 31. 38. 44. 50. 54. 56. 55. 55. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 9. 5. -0. -4. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -2. -2. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 25. 29. 37. 38. 40. 38. 36. 33. 29. 29. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 81.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 10/22/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.82 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 58% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 17.6% 11.5% 8.4% 5.9% 11.3% 16.0% 57.9% Logistic: 6.1% 34.0% 16.0% 5.1% 2.7% 14.0% 40.8% 80.9% Bayesian: 2.9% 19.7% 3.3% 0.4% 0.4% 7.1% 19.0% 90.6% Consensus: 3.9% 23.8% 10.3% 4.6% 3.0% 10.8% 25.3% 76.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 10/22/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 10/22/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 42 47 37 30 28 27 27 29 27 24 21 20 23 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 43 33 26 24 23 23 25 23 20 17 16 19 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 37 27 20 18 17 17 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT