* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172023 10/22/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 45 42 37 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 48 45 42 34 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 49 46 43 35 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 36 37 36 37 40 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 6 9 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 231 227 226 221 216 207 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.0 29.0 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 167 167 166 162 152 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.3 -49.0 -49.0 -49.1 -49.3 -49.4 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 39 39 37 36 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 17 12 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 37 55 68 82 65 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 0 22 37 46 42 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 33 82 70 30 -9 -90 -186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.6 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.6 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.8 109.4 109.0 108.7 108.3 107.6 106.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 33 33 31 27 17 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 3. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -6. -13. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -13. -22. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 24.3 109.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172023 NORMA 10/22/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 49.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 386.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.0 49.8 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172023 NORMA 10/22/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##