* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 10/22/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 28 33 38 45 48 51 51 52 56 57 51 51 54 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 28 33 38 45 48 51 51 52 56 57 51 51 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 33 35 38 40 40 37 32 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 9 7 10 15 14 14 14 15 19 29 35 22 19 17 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 4 4 0 0 -4 0 3 8 4 11 13 9 4 4 SHEAR DIR 73 79 60 57 70 77 90 101 111 100 90 78 79 67 68 80 97 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.2 30.0 30.2 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.2 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 148 150 154 162 165 161 159 159 158 159 158 160 162 157 154 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 4 5 3 5 4 6 4 700-500 MB RH 72 69 68 68 70 73 77 80 84 83 89 88 84 77 75 70 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 7 8 9 12 16 17 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 4 8 5 5 9 17 20 22 69 74 86 88 98 89 77 68 69 200 MB DIV 95 74 58 40 27 22 31 47 108 106 122 134 118 91 95 74 34 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 2 4 2 -8 -3 0 2 3 0 LAND (KM) 684 674 675 657 619 529 434 339 297 296 291 237 188 130 110 33 -112 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.9 10.4 11.1 11.8 12.0 11.9 11.9 12.3 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.5 96.3 96.1 95.8 95.5 94.8 94.3 93.8 93.4 93.2 93.1 92.8 92.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 3 1 1 1 3 4 5 8 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 14 18 32 39 33 29 30 29 24 22 22 21 18 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 17. 25. 31. 35. 40. 43. 46. 49. 49. 49. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -22. -23. -22. -18. -14. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -4. -3. 1. 5. 6. -1. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 8. 13. 20. 23. 26. 26. 27. 31. 32. 26. 26. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 96.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 10/22/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.78 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.31 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.3% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 7.4% 1.8% 0.8% 0.1% 1.0% 4.1% 16.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 0.3% 7.8% 4.8% 0.3% 0.0% 5.1% 5.8% 5.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 10/22/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##