* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/22/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 70 70 70 73 74 75 77 82 82 78 70 62 58 57 60 V (KT) LAND 70 69 70 70 70 73 74 75 77 82 82 78 70 62 58 57 60 V (KT) LGEM 70 69 68 67 67 68 69 69 69 68 59 45 33 26 23 22 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 16 19 18 15 19 27 33 45 54 39 25 26 16 18 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 5 3 1 4 9 5 16 19 14 10 6 3 -1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 249 242 245 254 257 236 238 225 243 241 232 203 198 207 257 281 280 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.6 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 157 155 155 151 146 142 142 144 134 133 132 125 119 113 108 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -51.2 -50.2 -50.0 -50.2 -51.1 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 66 68 68 68 59 54 49 42 34 34 39 47 49 40 27 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 16 16 19 21 23 27 34 36 35 31 27 25 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 10 10 7 -4 0 24 45 107 129 167 155 154 100 58 48 -52 -81 200 MB DIV 40 78 83 36 6 61 58 95 64 50 12 -8 10 1 28 -37 -29 700-850 TADV 9 13 8 10 10 2 2 -2 16 17 47 41 22 11 0 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 50 126 168 224 286 401 475 550 641 762 923 1070 1208 1137 969 857 792 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.3 22.3 22.9 23.4 24.1 25.2 26.7 28.2 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.8 63.2 63.6 63.8 63.9 63.6 63.2 62.5 62.0 61.8 61.7 62.3 63.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 7 8 8 9 10 9 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 77 78 74 68 63 59 53 40 30 30 28 24 15 13 9 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. -15. -19. -21. -20. -17. -14. -12. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 5. 8. 13. 22. 26. 23. 15. 9. 5. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -0. 0. 3. 4. 5. 7. 12. 12. 8. -0. -8. -12. -13. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 18.7 62.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/22/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.43 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 72.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.45 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.85 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.41 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.4% 9.1% 8.2% 6.1% 9.1% 8.2% 5.1% Logistic: 1.4% 2.8% 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.5% 3.4% 3.0% 2.2% 3.4% 2.9% 1.7% DTOPS: 5.0% 6.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/22/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/22/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 4( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 69 70 70 70 73 74 75 77 82 82 78 70 62 58 57 60 18HR AGO 70 69 70 70 70 73 74 75 77 82 82 78 70 62 58 57 60 12HR AGO 70 67 66 66 66 69 70 71 73 78 78 74 66 58 54 53 56 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 63 64 65 67 72 72 68 60 52 48 47 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT