* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 10/22/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 39 43 48 53 57 62 66 68 67 65 64 61 61 65 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 39 43 41 32 28 27 27 27 26 29 28 25 25 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 37 31 28 27 27 27 31 27 31 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 6 4 4 5 3 4 2 7 9 14 21 24 24 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 5 7 6 1 -1 2 1 0 8 9 7 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 213 162 150 163 157 73 63 66 329 69 130 136 124 113 109 105 125 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 30.0 30.6 30.2 30.3 29.6 28.6 28.6 30.0 30.0 29.6 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 154 154 156 168 170 171 172 163 146 147 170 169 160 161 160 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -51.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 4 6 4 6 5 5 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 79 77 77 77 75 79 79 83 81 80 81 79 76 74 72 74 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 11 12 12 11 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 34 35 34 29 34 37 63 69 70 108 126 134 109 106 99 90 200 MB DIV 64 63 78 71 71 63 25 48 75 65 94 140 121 152 120 108 32 700-850 TADV 2 1 3 4 4 3 2 1 2 0 2 8 18 12 6 1 0 LAND (KM) 220 202 165 113 75 -6 -143 -141 -65 -149 -91 -11 2 99 173 188 149 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.1 13.9 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.1 16.2 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.5 81.8 82.1 82.5 82.8 83.6 84.8 86.3 88.1 90.3 92.7 95.5 98.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 11 11 12 14 12 9 6 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 25 26 28 46 10 45 49 18 15 15 27 31 28 41 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 14. 23. 31. 38. 45. 50. 54. 56. 55. 55. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 13. 12. 10. 6. 2. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 13. 18. 23. 27. 32. 36. 38. 37. 35. 34. 31. 31. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 81.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 10/22/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.75 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.79 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 63% is 12.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 32.3% 16.1% 9.4% 7.2% 12.3% 19.8% 63.5% Logistic: 7.4% 39.7% 19.6% 4.5% 2.3% 16.1% 38.2% 78.8% Bayesian: 2.6% 23.5% 4.3% 0.4% 0.2% 9.8% 16.7% 85.6% Consensus: 4.7% 31.8% 13.3% 4.8% 3.2% 12.7% 24.9% 76.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 10/22/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 10/22/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 39 43 41 32 28 27 27 27 26 29 28 25 25 29 18HR AGO 30 29 33 35 39 37 28 24 23 23 23 22 25 24 21 21 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 32 30 21 17 16 16 16 15 18 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT