* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182023 10/22/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 36 38 43 49 56 58 59 59 64 64 57 54 55 59 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 36 38 43 49 56 58 59 59 64 64 57 54 41 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 46 50 53 57 61 59 52 45 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 8 12 12 9 9 11 15 21 33 25 23 24 16 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 5 2 0 -2 -4 -2 1 0 4 6 12 7 4 2 SHEAR DIR 56 42 63 87 85 94 116 134 131 96 86 75 72 76 79 107 127 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.6 29.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 145 146 151 154 153 150 149 147 146 147 148 151 160 158 147 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -51.8 -52.5 -51.8 -52.4 -51.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 5 4 5 4 6 4 6 4 700-500 MB RH 71 68 69 71 73 75 76 81 80 84 87 87 84 78 75 71 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 11 10 9 10 9 9 10 15 16 12 9 9 11 850 MB ENV VOR 6 8 11 13 20 23 31 51 68 78 88 95 107 101 81 76 78 200 MB DIV 71 46 7 0 -2 47 47 68 98 107 101 164 141 132 106 61 23 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 2 3 1 -10 -6 0 1 3 -1 LAND (KM) 651 640 618 596 578 510 431 368 352 358 366 344 264 168 48 -62 -217 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5 11.1 11.9 12.5 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.7 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.7 96.6 96.4 96.2 95.8 95.4 95.2 95.0 95.0 95.3 95.4 95.4 95.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 2 1 1 1 2 4 5 9 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 10 12 16 21 18 15 14 13 13 12 11 16 25 19 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 26. 30. 33. 35. 38. 39. 38. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -3. -5. -10. -14. -16. -16. -13. -10. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -2. 5. 5. 1. -2. -2. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 13. 19. 26. 28. 29. 29. 34. 34. 27. 24. 25. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.8 96.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182023 EIGHTEEN 10/22/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.70 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.34 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.89 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 17.1% 13.3% 10.2% 0.0% 15.7% 15.2% 17.1% Logistic: 12.6% 43.9% 15.3% 9.0% 1.6% 8.0% 10.6% 22.5% Bayesian: 1.0% 9.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 2.2% 3.9% 0.2% Consensus: 7.8% 23.3% 9.8% 6.5% 0.6% 8.6% 9.9% 13.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182023 EIGHTEEN 10/22/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##