* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 10/22/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 42 50 52 56 56 59 60 61 59 57 56 58 63 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 42 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 6 7 8 11 8 8 9 5 9 21 20 13 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 6 4 5 0 0 0 2 4 1 6 9 6 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 128 143 142 115 78 67 58 33 33 56 89 121 109 119 142 163 204 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 30.0 30.4 30.3 30.3 29.8 28.5 28.1 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.6 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 157 168 170 171 172 166 145 140 146 146 141 144 152 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 5 6 5 6 5 6 4 4 3 5 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 77 77 80 81 85 82 82 78 75 72 72 71 68 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 15 11 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 34 37 34 31 39 47 62 72 81 118 133 138 126 106 93 78 200 MB DIV 66 86 97 101 86 62 47 44 70 78 99 101 113 118 82 42 35 700-850 TADV 1 2 3 2 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 3 4 6 3 1 0 LAND (KM) 180 148 112 78 52 -28 -138 -161 -99 -141 -122 -68 -126 -97 -80 -93 -38 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.5 13.0 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.6 16.3 16.9 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.0 82.3 82.6 82.8 83.0 83.8 84.8 86.2 88.0 90.2 92.5 95.3 98.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 4 4 5 7 8 10 11 12 14 12 11 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 25 27 30 41 8 16 49 26 10 9 11 13 12 16 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 14. 23. 31. 38. 45. 50. 53. 55. 53. 53. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. -1. -4. -9. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 20. 22. 26. 26. 29. 30. 31. 29. 27. 26. 28. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 82.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 10/22/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.54 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 16.7% 10.8% 7.7% 5.3% 10.8% 14.1% 33.4% Logistic: 3.1% 17.4% 6.2% 1.5% 0.7% 3.8% 19.8% 57.4% Bayesian: 1.0% 9.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 2.2% 3.6% 47.3% Consensus: 1.9% 14.4% 6.2% 3.1% 2.0% 5.6% 12.5% 46.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 16.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 10/22/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 10/22/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 38 42 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 35 39 36 28 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 31 23 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT