* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTIS EP182023 10/22/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 41 43 44 47 50 54 56 55 52 49 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 39 41 43 44 47 50 54 56 55 52 49 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 39 42 45 46 49 50 53 55 56 54 49 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 13 12 11 11 12 19 18 25 31 37 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 3 0 0 -1 -5 0 4 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 45 69 85 93 108 140 146 152 129 124 108 96 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.6 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 141 142 143 144 147 153 155 156 158 160 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 5 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 70 71 71 76 75 78 73 81 83 82 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 15 24 28 29 37 42 62 92 110 117 117 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 13 20 2 17 37 38 65 93 124 119 146 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 5 11 8 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 608 586 565 514 464 354 265 238 220 212 220 228 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.6 11.1 11.5 12.5 13.4 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.9 97.0 97.0 97.0 96.9 96.9 97.3 97.7 97.9 98.1 98.4 98.6 98.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 5 5 5 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 8 8 9 13 20 23 25 28 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. -20. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 9. 12. 15. 19. 21. 20. 17. 14. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.2 96.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182023 OTIS 10/22/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.62 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.34 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 17.0% 13.6% 10.8% 6.5% 15.3% 13.9% 9.3% Logistic: 9.6% 36.4% 12.1% 7.3% 1.7% 5.7% 4.9% 11.9% Bayesian: 0.7% 9.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 1.6% 2.0% 0.2% Consensus: 6.8% 21.0% 8.8% 6.1% 2.8% 7.5% 6.9% 7.2% DTOPS: 3.0% 7.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182023 OTIS 10/22/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##