* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTIS EP182023 10/23/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 44 46 49 52 52 56 59 59 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 43 44 46 49 52 52 56 59 59 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 43 44 46 46 49 54 59 60 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 10 11 10 12 14 14 19 16 23 26 26 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 2 0 1 -2 -4 -4 0 0 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 73 79 87 110 147 172 160 149 132 108 97 85 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.8 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 142 143 145 150 155 158 159 160 161 162 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -51.8 -52.4 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 5 8 5 7 4 5 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 69 70 69 74 75 77 75 77 85 82 81 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 11 9 13 17 17 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 33 39 33 42 47 56 78 92 131 127 138 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 20 12 17 39 61 54 61 83 78 147 109 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 -1 -10 -16 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 536 497 459 398 337 234 196 166 136 119 129 115 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.3 11.6 12.2 12.7 13.7 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.0 15.2 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.3 97.3 97.3 97.2 97.2 97.3 97.7 98.0 98.1 98.2 98.4 98.5 98.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 5 6 5 4 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 9 10 15 22 27 29 31 33 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 26. 28. 31. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. 2. 7. 8. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 14. 17. 17. 21. 24. 24. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.9 97.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182023 OTIS 10/23/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.63 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.37 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 18.4% 14.1% 11.0% 6.9% 16.5% 15.4% 12.6% Logistic: 3.7% 21.3% 6.3% 3.9% 0.7% 2.6% 3.0% 9.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 0.7% Consensus: 4.4% 14.1% 6.9% 5.0% 2.6% 6.5% 6.4% 7.5% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182023 OTIS 10/23/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##