* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/23/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 73 76 78 79 83 85 78 69 61 59 57 54 56 63 70 V (KT) LAND 70 71 73 76 78 79 83 85 78 69 61 59 57 54 56 63 70 V (KT) LGEM 70 71 72 73 73 74 76 74 63 47 35 29 26 25 26 28 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 18 19 20 21 28 38 48 42 35 19 20 23 26 34 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 5 7 4 9 14 14 6 -3 -5 -1 -2 -1 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 239 230 220 223 237 235 233 229 234 225 232 262 268 286 305 322 325 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.5 27.7 27.1 26.8 27.0 26.5 25.7 24.9 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 153 150 146 144 143 144 143 132 125 122 124 117 109 103 115 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -51.6 -50.6 -50.4 -50.5 -51.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 66 66 64 58 57 54 48 44 37 38 41 36 32 29 25 25 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 19 21 22 23 29 34 33 29 26 25 24 24 25 29 35 850 MB ENV VOR -7 5 14 29 37 78 112 142 144 117 73 17 -64 -63 -81 -103 -71 200 MB DIV 39 26 62 97 92 68 90 100 30 -19 -43 -12 -2 -1 -37 -64 -29 700-850 TADV 13 9 11 6 10 8 9 34 55 32 0 -1 -7 -4 -4 -8 -5 LAND (KM) 252 314 376 431 489 582 739 910 1067 1214 1316 1267 1108 956 797 680 625 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.0 23.6 24.7 26.0 27.3 28.9 30.3 30.8 30.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.0 63.9 63.8 63.5 63.1 62.2 61.1 60.0 59.4 59.9 61.4 63.4 65.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 6 5 6 8 8 7 9 9 9 9 7 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 64 62 59 57 51 37 29 30 25 13 6 5 15 5 0 0 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -16. -19. -19. -17. -14. -12. -10. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 13. 21. 20. 15. 10. 8. 6. 4. 5. 9. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 13. 15. 8. -1. -9. -11. -13. -16. -14. -7. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.0 64.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/23/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.33 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.85 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.33 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 14.7% 10.2% 8.6% 6.3% 8.9% 7.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.3% 3.7% 3.0% 2.2% 3.0% 2.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/23/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/23/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 6( 13) 7( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 73 76 78 79 83 85 78 69 61 59 57 54 56 63 70 18HR AGO 70 69 71 74 76 77 81 83 76 67 59 57 55 52 54 61 68 12HR AGO 70 67 66 69 71 72 76 78 71 62 54 52 50 47 49 56 63 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 62 63 67 69 62 53 45 43 41 38 40 47 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT