* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 10/23/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 43 48 53 59 61 60 62 62 63 65 67 69 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 30 28 27 36 38 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 33 34 29 27 27 34 38 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 7 7 6 7 7 7 11 11 15 13 14 11 2 8 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 4 0 -1 -2 -2 9 8 1 9 13 6 9 12 4 0 SHEAR DIR 149 125 87 72 85 75 61 49 81 53 63 43 21 16 354 236 239 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.9 29.8 30.1 29.8 29.4 29.5 29.6 28.1 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 152 154 158 166 165 171 165 157 160 162 139 146 144 145 143 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 7 5 6 4 6 4 5 5 6 6 8 3 700-500 MB RH 75 76 76 78 79 81 83 84 84 81 76 70 69 66 67 58 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 31 27 32 34 46 46 74 74 102 118 107 91 72 58 37 56 200 MB DIV 51 65 64 67 51 40 60 89 80 83 100 91 52 53 35 27 48 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 2 3 2 0 2 3 -4 -7 -4 -4 -1 0 0 15 LAND (KM) 160 125 106 63 10 -76 -119 -10 16 2 -30 -7 -83 -184 -291 -397 -480 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.7 12.7 12.8 13.2 13.8 14.5 15.6 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.2 82.5 82.7 83.0 83.4 84.4 85.8 87.4 89.0 90.4 91.8 93.3 95.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 5 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 10 14 16 15 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 25 27 31 27 36 35 29 22 22 24 6 18 7 18 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 14. 23. 32. 40. 47. 52. 56. 58. 55. 54. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -2. -3. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -12. -13. -14. -13. -13. -12. -10. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 18. 23. 29. 31. 30. 32. 32. 33. 35. 37. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 82.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 10/23/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 15.8% 10.3% 7.7% 5.3% 10.9% 14.7% 31.8% Logistic: 2.2% 15.7% 5.1% 1.4% 0.9% 7.4% 31.2% 67.2% Bayesian: 1.1% 10.4% 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% 3.1% 1.9% 78.2% Consensus: 1.6% 14.0% 5.7% 3.1% 2.1% 7.1% 15.9% 59.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 10/23/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 10/23/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 37 30 28 27 36 38 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 35 28 26 25 34 36 29 27 26 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 24 22 21 30 32 25 23 22 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT