* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTIS EP182023 10/23/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 37 40 43 47 52 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 37 40 43 47 37 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 37 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 10 11 12 19 19 19 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 1 1 -3 -5 -4 1 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 73 87 107 133 164 174 158 156 129 127 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.6 29.5 30.0 30.2 30.0 29.4 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 143 145 148 158 163 165 163 156 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 7 6 8 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 72 71 75 77 76 77 71 72 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 14 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 36 32 37 43 38 65 82 97 127 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 20 24 32 42 50 43 55 59 102 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 -3 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 500 452 405 359 314 220 144 95 18 -41 -64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.0 14.0 14.8 15.5 16.5 17.3 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.1 97.2 97.3 97.4 97.5 97.9 98.3 98.7 99.5 100.1 100.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 8 8 10 12 23 31 34 28 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 24. 26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.2 97.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182023 OTIS 10/23/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.65 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.35 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.17 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 10.0% 9.3% 6.8% 0.0% 12.1% 12.6% 9.1% Logistic: 0.5% 4.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.9% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 1.9% 4.9% 3.5% 2.4% 0.0% 4.2% 4.5% 3.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182023 OTIS 10/23/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##