* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/23/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 69 68 68 68 70 67 59 51 45 42 40 35 36 42 46 V (KT) LAND 70 69 69 68 68 68 70 67 59 51 45 42 40 35 36 42 46 V (KT) LGEM 70 69 67 66 65 65 66 60 47 36 28 24 20 18 17 18 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 22 23 21 27 34 42 45 50 43 38 34 39 36 27 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 6 7 6 8 12 13 10 4 1 -3 3 2 -1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 222 211 222 239 244 222 216 225 220 218 224 226 239 233 244 251 310 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.0 26.8 26.1 25.9 25.4 25.4 25.0 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 147 144 143 141 146 143 132 122 121 114 112 106 107 105 107 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -51.6 -50.8 -50.8 -51.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -53.1 -51.7 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 65 64 58 57 55 50 49 44 42 45 48 51 46 32 32 33 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 20 20 21 23 29 30 27 24 22 20 21 19 20 23 25 850 MB ENV VOR 2 17 29 29 46 97 113 123 106 56 22 8 5 -46 -74 -49 -40 200 MB DIV 31 62 96 73 53 86 96 87 45 21 -24 34 29 -15 5 -2 -35 700-850 TADV 7 11 6 9 7 2 9 35 43 16 35 17 2 -3 -7 -13 -8 LAND (KM) 318 381 445 507 574 711 879 1067 1223 1337 1402 1331 1130 988 915 785 606 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.2 22.7 23.2 23.6 24.5 25.7 27.2 28.6 29.8 30.8 31.6 32.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.0 63.8 63.6 63.0 62.4 61.3 60.0 59.1 58.8 59.1 60.2 61.9 64.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 8 9 8 5 6 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 66 64 60 48 37 27 30 23 20 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -22. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -21. -22. -21. -19. -17. -15. -12. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 11. 14. 10. 5. 1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -2. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. -3. -11. -19. -25. -28. -30. -34. -34. -28. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.6 64.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/23/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.26 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.85 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.29 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 301.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 13.0% 9.0% 7.9% 5.6% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.0% 3.4% 2.8% 1.9% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/23/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/23/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 3( 10) 3( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 69 69 68 68 68 70 67 59 51 45 42 40 35 36 42 46 18HR AGO 70 69 69 68 68 68 70 67 59 51 45 42 40 35 36 42 46 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 65 65 67 64 56 48 42 39 37 32 33 39 43 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 60 62 59 51 43 37 34 32 27 28 34 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT