* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 10/23/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 45 49 55 62 67 66 57 53 56 58 58 61 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 32 28 27 36 43 48 47 38 34 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 30 28 27 34 42 50 51 43 36 29 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 7 6 7 8 4 7 13 22 22 17 18 17 14 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 -1 -2 -3 2 4 4 9 14 20 5 0 0 3 9 SHEAR DIR 124 89 88 99 105 90 93 69 51 76 68 66 45 54 62 84 242 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.6 30.7 29.9 29.9 30.4 30.6 29.5 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 154 158 162 164 170 170 167 167 170 170 160 138 144 147 138 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -52.3 -51.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 7 7 6 6 4 5 3 4 4 6 5 8 6 10 3 700-500 MB RH 74 74 78 78 78 84 84 85 86 83 77 69 65 56 53 53 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 7 5 6 8 14 16 10 8 8 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 32 25 29 31 35 46 55 70 82 106 109 92 68 63 48 45 39 200 MB DIV 61 71 65 58 69 66 79 100 95 104 109 79 16 22 14 29 19 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 3 3 1 5 1 -2 -5 -3 2 1 2 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 126 94 65 8 -32 -139 -17 82 82 63 38 41 43 -125 -184 -216 -280 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.8 13.4 14.1 15.0 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.5 82.8 83.1 83.6 84.0 85.3 86.8 88.3 89.8 91.3 92.3 93.3 94.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 7 8 7 8 7 6 6 9 10 14 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 26 29 35 52 35 35 23 22 26 29 21 10 17 8 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 14. 23. 32. 40. 47. 52. 56. 58. 56. 55. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 1. -5. -8. -11. -13. -12. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -9. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -5. -3. 3. 6. -4. -8. -9. -9. -11. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 19. 25. 32. 37. 36. 27. 23. 26. 28. 28. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 82.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 10/23/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.77 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 24.8% 12.6% 9.3% 7.2% 12.5% 18.3% 33.7% Logistic: 6.7% 47.8% 25.5% 16.9% 14.7% 39.9% 44.1% 80.2% Bayesian: 1.0% 27.6% 5.9% 1.1% 0.5% 8.1% 2.8% 91.0% Consensus: 3.7% 33.4% 14.7% 9.1% 7.5% 20.2% 21.7% 68.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 10/23/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 10/23/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 32 28 27 36 43 48 47 38 34 29 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 29 25 24 33 40 45 44 35 31 26 24 24 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 24 20 19 28 35 40 39 30 26 21 19 19 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT