* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTIS EP182023 10/23/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 36 38 40 43 47 49 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 36 38 40 43 39 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 32 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 13 13 15 18 16 18 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 -1 -4 -5 0 1 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 89 112 136 157 172 166 166 147 126 123 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.8 29.8 30.1 30.1 29.6 28.9 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 144 147 150 161 163 164 159 151 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 6 6 8 6 8 5 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 74 74 75 76 71 69 70 71 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 31 42 47 50 52 75 84 114 117 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 25 46 54 43 59 24 64 69 107 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 -3 -12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 450 399 349 313 275 169 110 67 -15 -68 -68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.1 13.5 14.6 15.4 16.0 17.0 17.8 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.4 97.5 97.6 97.8 97.9 98.4 98.8 99.2 100.0 100.6 101.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 5 6 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 7 10 13 16 31 35 31 23 16 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 21. 23. 25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.7 97.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182023 OTIS 10/23/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.65 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.38 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 14.6% 12.0% 9.1% 5.6% 15.2% 14.9% 11.7% Logistic: 1.0% 6.5% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 1.2% 2.7% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 2.7% 7.5% 4.6% 3.3% 2.0% 5.5% 5.9% 5.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182023 OTIS 10/23/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##