* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/23/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 66 68 71 77 78 75 66 57 51 45 42 45 50 48 46 V (KT) LAND 65 65 66 68 71 77 78 75 66 57 51 45 42 45 50 48 46 V (KT) LGEM 65 64 63 64 65 70 71 63 49 38 32 28 27 27 28 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 19 16 18 27 36 45 37 39 29 26 31 35 29 29 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 6 8 4 8 11 8 9 6 7 -2 0 -1 -4 1 3 SHEAR DIR 213 223 243 241 220 226 212 223 206 215 216 227 232 262 281 301 327 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.1 26.9 26.6 26.4 25.7 25.3 25.2 24.8 24.4 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 147 144 142 141 145 145 137 122 118 116 110 107 105 102 99 100 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -50.9 -50.6 -51.1 -51.7 -52.4 -52.6 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 57 57 56 53 48 45 43 43 49 53 53 42 21 16 17 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 19 20 23 29 32 33 29 26 25 22 22 26 29 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 13 23 26 50 76 104 123 116 105 64 50 21 14 4 -144 -147 -127 200 MB DIV 61 76 67 60 60 106 104 40 42 4 3 22 32 -34 -97 -53 -31 700-850 TADV 11 7 12 11 9 10 24 53 26 19 13 5 -2 -8 -3 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 376 443 513 574 639 796 988 1175 1359 1431 1395 1265 1071 914 796 678 551 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.6 24.0 25.1 26.5 28.1 29.9 30.9 31.4 31.9 32.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.8 63.4 63.0 62.4 61.8 60.6 59.3 58.7 58.8 59.6 61.0 62.7 64.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 7 7 8 9 9 7 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 65 59 48 37 29 29 26 22 9 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -17. -16. -15. -12. -11. -10. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 13. 16. 12. 7. 4. -1. -1. 3. 6. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 13. 10. 1. -8. -14. -20. -23. -20. -15. -17. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 22.1 63.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/23/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.32 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.93 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.32 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 293.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 13.9% 9.5% 8.0% 5.9% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.3% 3.5% 2.8% 2.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 9.0% 4.0% 4.0% 13.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/23/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/23/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 6( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 66 68 71 77 78 75 66 57 51 45 42 45 50 48 46 18HR AGO 65 64 65 67 70 76 77 74 65 56 50 44 41 44 49 47 45 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 66 72 73 70 61 52 46 40 37 40 45 43 41 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 64 65 62 53 44 38 32 29 32 37 35 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT