* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 10/23/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 33 37 46 57 58 51 42 43 47 51 54 59 V (KT) LAND 25 23 24 25 26 26 33 42 53 54 40 31 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 25 25 26 31 36 44 48 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 7 12 8 9 10 20 25 25 17 18 14 12 1 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 0 -2 0 3 6 14 17 22 20 12 9 8 15 10 SHEAR DIR 78 85 96 108 95 91 72 57 71 83 78 68 42 49 64 104 262 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.7 30.0 30.4 30.4 30.0 30.0 29.4 29.2 29.4 28.0 28.4 28.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 157 161 161 168 170 170 168 168 157 154 158 137 144 148 138 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 7 9 8 10 700-500 MB RH 75 80 80 81 84 85 87 88 83 78 69 68 54 51 51 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 7 6 8 14 17 14 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 29 35 40 39 47 69 93 97 96 82 80 46 56 47 48 17 200 MB DIV 85 85 90 96 105 92 109 127 120 83 37 41 18 23 1 33 18 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 3 9 -1 0 0 1 0 2 8 LAND (KM) 45 -1 -35 -74 -117 -30 74 144 115 51 -53 -86 -24 -73 -172 -255 -321 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.8 12.4 13.2 14.4 15.1 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.3 83.8 84.1 84.5 84.9 86.0 87.2 88.4 89.4 90.1 90.6 91.7 93.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 10 12 14 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 24 26 30 27 37 30 29 40 27 23 21 19 20 9 15 5 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 24. 34. 42. 50. 55. 60. 62. 61. 60. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. -6. -13. -16. -19. -19. -18. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -10. -9. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -4. 3. 7. 2. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 21. 32. 33. 26. 17. 18. 22. 26. 29. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 83.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 10/23/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.84 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.56 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 15.6% 10.0% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 24.2% 8.1% 5.8% 5.4% 18.6% 28.5% 58.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 6.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 71.3% Consensus: 1.7% 15.3% 6.3% 3.9% 1.8% 6.4% 14.0% 43.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 10/23/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 10/23/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 23 24 25 26 26 33 42 53 54 40 31 29 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 27 34 43 54 55 41 32 30 29 28 28 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 23 30 39 50 51 37 28 26 25 24 24 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 23 32 43 44 30 21 19 18 17 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT