* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/24/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 64 66 69 67 65 54 47 42 40 38 34 33 33 32 V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 64 66 69 67 65 54 47 42 40 38 34 33 33 32 V (KT) LGEM 65 63 63 63 64 66 63 52 39 31 27 24 23 21 20 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 17 19 29 34 47 42 41 33 35 25 35 32 36 33 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 7 6 -2 4 -1 -5 0 0 5 SHEAR DIR 223 241 236 214 207 216 214 219 215 225 226 238 244 277 292 296 256 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 25.7 25.7 25.5 25.3 24.9 24.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 144 142 143 147 139 123 120 118 110 109 107 105 102 101 110 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -52.0 -52.8 -51.6 -51.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 54 52 46 41 40 41 46 50 49 38 27 29 32 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 22 25 30 31 32 27 24 22 21 22 21 20 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 26 29 45 79 104 121 128 107 67 44 29 19 -3 -81 -82 -68 -37 200 MB DIV 76 49 32 54 82 93 97 23 11 -18 30 8 25 -21 -9 -12 1 700-850 TADV 10 12 9 9 0 10 35 39 20 28 11 4 -5 -7 -2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 438 491 547 645 742 915 1148 1345 1380 1399 1246 1096 975 873 780 673 575 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.0 23.3 24.0 24.7 25.9 27.8 29.8 30.5 31.2 32.0 32.4 32.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.4 62.8 62.3 61.6 61.0 59.6 58.6 58.9 59.9 61.3 62.9 64.5 65.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 9 9 10 10 7 6 7 7 6 5 5 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 61 50 42 29 27 29 23 9 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -19. -19. -17. -14. -13. -11. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 10. 12. 4. -1. -5. -6. -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 2. -0. -11. -18. -23. -25. -27. -31. -32. -32. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 22.6 63.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/24/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.30 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.93 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.77 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.31 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 13.0% 8.8% 7.5% 5.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 2.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.2% 3.4% 2.6% 1.8% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 17.0% 12.0% 6.0% 5.0% 10.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/24/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/24/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 64 64 66 69 67 65 54 47 42 40 38 34 33 33 32 18HR AGO 65 64 64 64 66 69 67 65 54 47 42 40 38 34 33 33 32 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 63 66 64 62 51 44 39 37 35 31 30 30 29 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 60 58 56 45 38 33 31 29 25 24 24 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT