* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/24/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 69 70 68 64 56 50 43 37 32 26 21 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 69 70 68 64 56 50 43 37 32 26 21 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 65 66 66 67 66 57 46 37 32 30 27 24 21 19 17 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 22 30 37 45 45 40 39 32 33 27 32 31 33 35 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 4 0 1 10 6 3 1 6 2 3 -4 2 3 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 240 237 223 215 221 206 222 213 238 246 248 271 269 294 278 241 244 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.2 27.1 26.6 26.1 25.8 25.5 25.6 25.1 25.2 25.0 24.7 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 144 147 140 125 118 113 110 107 108 104 105 103 101 99 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.4 -50.9 -51.4 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.9 1.1 -0.1 0.0 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 56 53 52 49 46 42 43 43 44 50 56 55 44 42 48 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 22 26 28 31 31 29 27 26 24 22 20 17 14 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 35 46 78 102 104 124 105 84 41 27 20 13 -26 -60 -45 -35 4 200 MB DIV 52 33 48 86 87 108 37 41 -16 30 21 44 -10 14 -1 33 39 700-850 TADV 13 11 8 1 0 -1 9 -5 -1 6 2 1 -2 0 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 532 602 676 780 880 1137 1334 1438 1372 1279 1221 1153 1037 936 830 739 660 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 23.9 24.4 25.1 25.8 27.8 29.6 30.9 31.8 32.2 32.3 32.5 33.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.1 62.5 61.9 61.1 60.3 58.9 58.6 59.4 60.7 61.8 62.8 63.8 64.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 9 10 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 5 5 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 44 32 27 28 30 22 12 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. -24. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -16. -19. -21. -20. -19. -17. -14. -12. -11. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 5. 8. 10. 8. 5. 2. -2. -5. -10. -14. -19. -24. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 4. 5. 3. -1. -9. -15. -22. -28. -33. -39. -44. -49. -53. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 23.4 63.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/24/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.17 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.93 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.31 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 332.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 14.2% 9.8% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 2.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 5.5% 3.7% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 30.0% 21.0% 9.0% 9.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/24/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/24/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 3( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 66 69 70 68 64 56 50 43 37 32 26 21 16 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 64 67 68 66 62 54 48 41 35 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 65 63 59 51 45 38 32 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 54 50 42 36 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT