* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTIS EP182023 10/24/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 50 49 49 46 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 51 50 49 49 46 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 52 51 49 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 13 14 16 16 20 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 151 162 163 153 163 168 153 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.9 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.0 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 163 166 164 163 161 152 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 7 8 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 73 70 70 68 59 56 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 7 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 50 43 52 74 87 84 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 24 46 58 51 40 44 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 238 188 145 110 62 4 -45 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.9 17.8 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.3 98.6 98.9 99.2 99.5 100.2 101.0 101.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 33 38 37 31 25 17 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -1. -4. -6. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.9 98.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182023 OTIS 10/24/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.68 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.51 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -7.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 33.9% 26.7% 18.8% 13.4% 25.7% 20.1% 10.3% Logistic: 2.5% 8.8% 3.6% 1.9% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 15.3% 10.3% 6.9% 5.0% 8.9% 6.9% 3.6% DTOPS: 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182023 OTIS 10/24/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##