* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/24/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 66 67 67 61 55 46 39 34 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 65 66 67 67 61 55 46 39 34 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 65 65 66 66 61 49 39 33 29 27 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 29 34 38 49 37 40 32 30 29 31 38 36 40 46 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 1 4 8 10 4 1 2 3 3 3 -2 3 -10 -7 0 SHEAR DIR 231 220 213 216 212 218 218 219 240 250 290 278 300 298 276 271 248 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 27.8 26.8 26.2 26.0 25.5 25.3 25.1 25.3 25.2 24.9 25.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 141 145 144 133 121 114 111 107 105 104 106 104 101 103 106 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.3 -50.9 -50.4 -51.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 4 5 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 52 53 51 48 45 42 42 41 43 51 54 45 35 32 32 41 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 27 28 32 31 30 27 25 24 21 19 16 13 8 5 8 850 MB ENV VOR 52 85 100 105 131 133 104 51 21 -8 -11 -47 -92 -92 -93 -15 -7 200 MB DIV 55 68 78 77 102 95 24 -30 -8 0 18 -5 4 -48 -5 79 89 700-850 TADV 11 8 2 0 -1 10 17 -11 2 5 0 -9 -1 0 6 9 32 LAND (KM) 599 669 741 873 1004 1216 1356 1423 1351 1269 1179 1097 992 895 820 779 781 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.4 24.8 25.8 26.8 28.6 30.1 31.4 31.5 31.9 32.5 32.8 32.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.6 62.0 61.3 60.5 59.7 59.0 59.4 60.4 61.7 62.6 63.3 64.3 65.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 10 12 11 9 8 6 5 5 4 5 6 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 31 26 25 28 25 17 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. -25. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -16. -18. -19. -18. -17. -15. -13. -11. -11. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -22. -26. -34. -38. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. -4. -10. -19. -26. -31. -39. -43. -50. -55. -60. -64. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 23.9 62.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/24/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.06 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.93 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.30 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.49 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 342.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 13.5% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 1.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.1% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 18.0% 13.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/24/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/24/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 66 67 67 61 55 46 39 34 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 65 66 66 60 54 45 38 33 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 62 56 50 41 34 29 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 49 43 34 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT