* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/24/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 67 68 63 55 46 44 37 34 30 26 21 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 67 68 63 55 46 44 37 34 30 26 21 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 65 66 66 65 58 47 38 34 31 30 28 27 25 23 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 25 30 37 39 40 35 32 29 28 18 26 26 34 32 43 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 5 5 13 8 2 3 -2 0 5 -6 -3 2 -4 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 217 208 212 211 206 220 212 223 234 249 272 283 299 292 267 251 250 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 27.4 26.8 26.2 25.7 25.5 25.6 25.4 25.5 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 144 144 142 128 121 114 108 107 107 105 106 103 102 101 98 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.0 -50.6 -50.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -53.2 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.5 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 52 50 46 43 44 42 40 42 47 54 50 35 24 25 21 24 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 28 28 31 33 34 29 26 27 23 23 20 19 16 14 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 88 107 111 134 139 125 97 57 41 35 26 -11 -55 -60 -61 -14 -25 200 MB DIV 73 83 86 89 108 57 6 -31 11 1 10 -21 -27 -41 0 49 52 700-850 TADV 7 2 4 0 5 41 10 4 5 3 -2 -4 0 0 0 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 651 744 836 960 1084 1272 1370 1385 1298 1227 1131 1057 1014 971 940 919 924 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.9 25.5 26.5 27.5 29.2 30.5 31.4 31.8 32.1 32.4 32.5 32.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.0 61.3 60.7 60.1 59.5 59.2 60.2 61.2 62.2 63.1 64.1 64.9 65.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 10 8 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 27 27 22 11 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -23. -25. -26. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -13. -15. -17. -17. -16. -13. -11. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 2. -2. -2. -8. -10. -15. -18. -22. -27. -32. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. -2. -10. -19. -21. -28. -31. -35. -39. -44. -47. -51. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 24.2 62.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/24/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 46.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 360.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 17.0% 12.0% 5.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/24/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/24/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 67 67 68 63 55 46 44 37 34 30 26 21 18 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 65 65 66 61 53 44 42 35 32 28 24 19 16 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 62 57 49 40 38 31 28 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 51 43 34 32 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT