* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTIS EP182023 10/24/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 106 108 104 99 87 73 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 106 108 104 99 74 50 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 107 111 109 107 85 56 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 14 16 18 20 21 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -4 -3 -3 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 151 145 148 155 156 160 152 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.5 29.0 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 163 161 161 157 152 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 64 60 60 57 53 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 46 59 77 82 73 64 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 32 10 16 31 52 23 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 184 130 75 51 28 -9 -22 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.4 18.1 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.3 99.6 100.0 100.3 100.5 101.0 101.8 102.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 4 4 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 39 32 29 27 23 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -6. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -14. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 11. 16. 16. 14. 10. 5. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 11. 13. 9. 4. -8. -22. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 14.9 99.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182023 OTIS 10/24/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.28 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 45.0 -22.0 to 44.0 1.00 17.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.41 5.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 391.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 -7.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 5.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 8.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 82% is 13.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 81.7% 45.6% 45.1% 40.7% 29.0% 22.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 69.2% 33.4% 29.1% 27.8% 37.2% 3.4% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 3.8% 9.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 51.6% 29.4% 24.8% 22.8% 22.2% 8.5% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 46.0% 0.0% 1.0% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182023 OTIS 10/24/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##