* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/25/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 76 77 74 64 53 48 40 35 29 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 77 76 77 74 64 53 48 40 35 29 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 78 80 79 76 63 50 42 38 37 35 32 29 27 26 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 29 36 35 41 36 35 27 31 24 22 29 28 23 18 28 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 5 12 10 3 1 0 -3 2 4 -3 -4 0 -4 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 207 215 212 211 212 213 216 243 242 300 293 316 326 313 276 283 284 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.1 26.9 26.3 25.7 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 144 145 144 137 124 121 114 108 107 107 110 113 113 115 115 115 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.0 1.9 1.2 1.9 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 52 49 45 46 44 44 44 47 54 59 52 45 44 47 56 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 29 33 34 32 27 26 23 23 21 19 16 13 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 101 106 130 138 131 121 77 55 40 34 0 -47 -72 -84 -51 -31 22 200 MB DIV 77 90 98 125 109 34 -10 -17 15 20 21 4 -23 -14 7 29 71 700-850 TADV 2 6 7 14 35 30 -1 0 -2 0 -8 -2 0 11 -2 4 -4 LAND (KM) 715 826 939 1048 1157 1293 1356 1399 1300 1239 1222 1179 1111 1104 1147 1167 1128 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.4 26.3 27.2 28.1 29.6 30.5 31.1 31.5 31.7 31.7 31.7 31.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.2 60.7 60.1 59.6 59.2 59.7 60.7 61.5 62.6 63.2 63.4 63.9 64.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 7 5 5 4 2 1 3 2 1 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 27 23 19 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 4 6 6 6 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -10. -16. -21. -26. -30. -34. -36. -37. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -12. -17. -19. -18. -17. -14. -11. -9. -6. -4. -2. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. -2. -4. -10. -11. -16. -20. -25. -30. -32. -33. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. 2. -1. -11. -22. -27. -35. -40. -46. -52. -58. -63. -62. -62. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 24.5 61.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/25/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 49.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.20 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 403.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 24.0% 8.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/25/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/25/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 5( 14) 0( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 77 76 77 74 64 53 48 40 35 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 73 74 71 61 50 45 37 32 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 69 59 48 43 35 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 62 52 41 36 28 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT