* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/25/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 86 83 77 63 51 44 37 33 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 87 86 83 77 63 51 44 37 33 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 90 91 87 80 63 50 44 41 39 38 36 34 32 29 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 29 35 40 36 31 30 26 26 14 18 18 26 23 36 34 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 9 11 8 4 0 -2 0 5 -3 -1 -1 -6 -1 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 218 209 208 215 217 207 220 231 253 300 306 312 285 282 291 275 246 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.6 27.0 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 144 139 130 123 118 112 107 109 110 114 115 117 118 118 118 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -51.7 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -51.1 -51.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.7 1.5 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 4 1 700-500 MB RH 49 47 47 45 47 43 47 53 55 51 40 31 30 28 27 32 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 34 35 34 29 26 24 21 22 21 18 15 12 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 106 132 146 137 124 103 71 51 21 15 -23 -48 -77 -70 -58 -10 -23 200 MB DIV 96 110 120 113 46 31 -10 10 -2 14 39 -11 -42 -28 1 52 67 700-850 TADV 9 8 12 44 40 13 5 6 2 0 -2 -3 0 2 2 5 -11 LAND (KM) 803 928 1053 1150 1247 1328 1364 1367 1274 1231 1237 1219 1147 1124 1146 1142 1096 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 26.1 27.1 28.0 28.9 30.1 30.7 31.0 31.5 31.5 31.2 30.9 31.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.4 59.8 59.2 59.1 59.0 60.2 61.2 62.1 62.9 63.4 63.5 63.9 64.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 23 20 14 6 3 0 0 0 0 2 6 9 8 7 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -9. -17. -24. -31. -38. -42. -45. -48. -49. -51. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -13. -17. -21. -21. -19. -17. -11. -7. -5. -2. -0. 1. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. -2. -7. -12. -16. -18. -21. -26. -30. -35. -40. -44. -42. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -2. -8. -22. -34. -41. -48. -52. -56. -61. -66. -70. -72. -74. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 25.1 60.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/25/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 51.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 463.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 17.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/25/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/25/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 10( 19) 6( 24) 0( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 87 86 83 77 63 51 44 37 33 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 83 80 74 60 48 41 34 30 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 78 72 58 46 39 32 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 69 55 43 36 29 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 52 40 33 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 87 78 72 69 61 49 42 35 31 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 87 86 77 71 67 55 48 41 37 33 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS