* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/25/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 87 80 74 60 50 42 37 33 27 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 91 87 80 74 60 50 42 37 33 27 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 92 90 83 74 60 51 46 44 44 44 43 40 36 34 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 33 39 41 36 30 23 25 16 19 19 16 22 19 28 41 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 15 10 5 5 0 6 0 0 -1 -5 2 3 -1 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 208 199 207 217 208 203 231 232 311 313 324 308 298 267 275 270 239 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.4 26.9 26.8 26.4 25.8 25.4 25.5 25.7 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 136 128 122 120 115 108 104 105 106 108 108 110 113 115 115 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -51.3 -51.9 -52.4 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.9 1.2 2.3 2.6 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 49 49 48 46 46 45 48 55 57 49 42 38 37 34 35 47 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 36 33 34 30 27 25 23 23 21 20 16 12 8 7 11 850 MB ENV VOR 130 145 137 131 121 104 69 53 56 21 -25 -37 -69 -44 -27 -2 -13 200 MB DIV 112 142 127 71 57 14 -3 0 25 32 18 -35 -24 0 -2 41 60 700-850 TADV 8 11 31 41 36 3 8 7 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 2 -9 LAND (KM) 943 1064 1185 1252 1319 1358 1390 1351 1287 1266 1272 1260 1229 1223 1230 1239 1209 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 27.2 28.2 29.0 29.7 30.5 31.0 31.3 31.6 31.5 31.2 31.1 31.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.4 59.0 58.7 59.0 59.3 60.6 61.5 62.1 62.7 63.0 63.1 63.3 63.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 20 11 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -6. -13. -22. -31. -39. -46. -51. -55. -57. -57. -60. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -15. -19. -22. -21. -18. -13. -8. -3. -1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -0. -4. -9. -13. -17. -20. -24. -27. -34. -39. -46. -48. -40. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -3. -10. -16. -30. -40. -48. -53. -57. -63. -66. -74. -80. -84. -85. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 26.1 59.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/25/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 53.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 472.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/25/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/25/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 5( 25) 0( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 91 87 80 74 60 50 42 37 33 27 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 85 78 72 58 48 40 35 31 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 79 73 59 49 41 36 32 26 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 74 60 50 42 37 33 27 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 57 47 39 34 30 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 91 82 76 73 66 56 48 43 39 33 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 91 87 78 72 68 58 50 45 41 35 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS